Cover shot: Windguru chart showing Hurricane Erin in the North Atlantic on Sunday, August 24th.
UPDATE: Sunday August 24th: After a tirade across the eastern side of the US, ex-Hurricane Erin is now about to unleash an unusual summer swell for Western Europe.
Forerunners from Erin will start to be felt by tomorrow evening, with the bulk of the swell landing on Tuesday and throughout Wednesday.
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“This hurricane has done the opposite of what they usually do,” said forecaster Tony Butt. “Usually these swells fizzle out, but as it’s entered the mid-latitude, it’s gotten stronger and hooked into an area of low pressure, that’s appeared below Greenland — which seems to have given it a little boost.
“It’s slow-moving as it sits below Iceland but it should pump some swell out. The swell is already coming. Even right now, there’s some swell starting to pump. Once it’s started, the short range charts are pretty reliable, and it’s not a hurricane anymore which are volatile, and it’s closer to us, the forecast is looking firm.
“The big question is the wind. Will have to check your local conditions to see how that’s looking.”
Spots in the northern-reaches of the UK will see clean conditions, but could be a bit south for the furthest reaches of the country. Western Ireland will be solid, tow surf. But there is potential for some south in the swell to spoil the event.
Down into the South West and it’s like we called when Erin first appeared; you’re going to need to find shelter to make Erin work for you. A reef or a point break will be better than the beachbreaks — which will likely be a gigantic closeout.
The swell will max out at 11ft@18 seconds in the south west, with a brisk WSW onshore wind. That’s going to spoil the party for many west-facing beaches.
Down into Portugal and big wave magnets like Nazare will be marred by onshore wind. But the swell is solid, 9ft@16 seconds. This swell remains very west, so don’t expect those A-frames we love to see. More a victory at sea session than anything but we’ll be covering it anyway.
Stay tuned for the full wrap up!
UPDATE: Monday August 18th: Hurricane Erin became a major category five storm last week, before dropping down to a category three yesterday evening — this storm is about as volatile as it gets. Currently, Erin is spinning across the Caribbean, before moving across the US east coast and boomeranging its way over the North Atlantic to Europe. But there is a lot to happen in the ocean before this becomes dead set.
And we cannot stress this enough; there’s so much happening in the North Atlantic, this swell might not even make it to shore, but we’re on alert anyway. Or it’ll be merged in with another system also in the North Atlantic. Lots going on here but we’ll break it down as is.
If it all comes good, then swell from Erin will arrive on Bank Holiday Monday. This is the first hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season, and swell from it is so powerful, it’ll touch every surf spot across the western flank of Europe and down into Africa too. To have a hurricane swell of this magnitude in August is unheard of and Erin is set to be one of the major swells of 2025.
The swell from Hurricane Erin will arrive Monday evening in the UK, peak overnight and then decay through Tuesday and Wednesday.
NOAA’s Hurricane Erin storm track. Erin could fuel up and intensify over the North Atlantic, possibly due to a rise in Sea Surface Temperature.
However, at this time, the forecast is still a long way out and the models have not agreed how this will all look.
On Monday, most west-facing spots in the UK will be hammered with a 10ft@21 seconds swell. Which means you’ll need to find shelter if surfing exposed spots, or do not go out at all. Tuesday, this will trend down but still be an extremely powerful swell. Most spots without a decent sand bar will be closing out. Your best bet is to find a reef, or point break, away from the energy of the swell. But this should be for experienced surfers only. The reason for this is because an object needs to break up the swell to allow the wave to peel or break accordingly. Without it, you’re going to be wearing a large amount of water on the head, all at once.
The north coast of Scotland looks to be solid and Erin won’t stretch down the backbone of the UK to the north east.
By Wednesday, in Cornwall and Devon, wave height will still be solid, with brisk offshore wind. Towards the evening, the open beaches will feel more manageable.
For Ireland; the west coast is right in the path of the swell from Hurricane Erin. Tuesday will be the day, as the forecast states as of right now [Monday August 18th] but we’ll update this as it gets closer to the time. And again, perhaps a day left to the rhino chasers.
Deeper into Europe, and it’s a similar story for the likes of Nazare. Tuesday will be in the XXL region for the world’s biggest wave. However, Nazare traditionally likes swell from a north west angle, above 310 degrees. From this angle, it’ll refract out of the canyon, bounce back towards shore and meet another wave, creating a tee-pee effect – or those giant a-frames we love to see here. The swell angle on Tuesday is more WNW, 292 degrees, which means the wave will be more straight then peaky. Still massive, and a wild size for late summer.
Looking at France, and sheltered spots will again be the go to. Unless the sand has been groomed into a perfect bank, much of the coast will be for the step-off crew only.
Northern Spain could see epic conditions on Tuesday, with Erin swell arriving from the NNW, ideal for the reefs around that area — but massive as of right now.
As for what’s causing hurricane swell to arrive in Europe in August, this could be due to a number of factors. Perhaps most interestingly, the North Atlantic is five degrees warmer this year than other years, an anomalous Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Warmer water helps fuel hurricanes on their projected paths, the warmer air rises and fuels the storm. The warmer the ocean, the more energy the storm can suck up, which leads to stronger storms.
More as we get it!
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Earlier: Monday August 11th: Tropical Storm Erin is currently spinning up in the heart of the mid-atlantic. Should this powerful storm continue to intensify, it is likely to become the first hurricane of the season — and there’s potential that hurricane swell could make its way to the UK, Ireland and beyond.
Going to caveat this here; there are a lot of factors still needed to make this happen. Tropical Storm Erin is heading towards the Caribbean at the moment. This will then rip across the east coast of the United States, take a tour very far north, re-intensify and send long-period surf across the North Atlantic and into our home shores.
In its current state, Tropical Storm Erin is heading towards the Caribbean, where it could spin up the US east coast and head towards the UK later in the month.
That hurricane track is known as a recurve, where the hurricane basically boomerangs back the way it came.
Current models suggest this swell will land around the last week of August – like we said, it has a long way to go yet.
Generally, if a swell period appears on your local buoys upwards of 18-seconds, it is likely that swell is from a tropical storm or hurricane. This is because the powerful epicentre of hurricanes are home to strong winds, these winds churn up the ocean and fan swell outwards. This ocean swell will travel, uninterrupted, until it hits land, resulting in longer wavelengths (or the distance between waves). The only land in the way of Erin’s potential track is the UK and Ireland.
That means the swell will arrive in one big lump, so to speak. Long period swell is not good for the beachbreaks of the UK. What you need is something to essentially chop the swell up, like a pointbreak or a reef, so it can organise the wave and allow for it to break properly. Without a landmass in the way, these long period swells will close out along the beachbreaks.
There it is, all the long period energy for UK, Ireland, Portugal and the Bay of Biscay. Swell chart from Surfline.
If you see a high double-digit swell, go to where you know is a good bank. Otherwise, you’re going to be in for a fairly rough time of it, with long walls of white water. That depends on the swell size too. This is just the general rule of thumb and every swell varies, but it’s a good rule to live by.
So how is Erin looking? Most beachbreaks on the north coast of Cornwall could see up to a 5ft@18 seconds swell arrive, but this will decay rapidly. This swell will be much smaller along Devon hot spots like Croyde as it struggles to get up the Bristol Channel.
We’re going to keep this post running while we watch Erin play out in real-time. Stay tuned!
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