Hurricanes. We look out for them in the depths of the North Atlantic, those huge swell-generating storms can often spell destruction over the other side of the pond. But they can also churn the ocean up and boomerang waves all the way over to the UK and Europe.
Some hurricanes can form off the coast of Africa, tear across the Atlantic, send waves to the Caribbean, up the US east coast and then pinch underneath Iceland to send quality surf here too. You’ll know when a swell has come from a hurricane, as the swell period will be high, in the 18 plus seconds mark.
Hurricane season officially launches on June 1st, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have just released their prediction for what’s about to happen. Although NOAA are a US-based agency, hurricane activity has massive implications for the surf around these parts too. Especially as we move into the North Atlantic swell season in September.
According to NOAA: The outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.NOAA say the season will be above average due to neutral ENSO conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. All of these elements tend to favour tropical storm formation.
“This high activity will continue into the Atlantic Basin, featuring high-heat content in the ocean and reduced trade winds,” said NOAA. “The higher-heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption.
“This hurricane season also features the potential for a northward shift of the West African monsoon, producing tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms.”
So, roll on the season we think!
